Monday, August 07, 2006

Best Poll in the Universe

Forget polling. The best, most scientific poll on who is going to win?

Bookies.

Of course, the margin of victory isn't there unless you get a spread. Mercifully, it appears as if Lieberman will be spared that indignity, but Lamont at the time of this post is running a 5:1 margin over Lieberman.

If people are willing to put their money to it, it's a pretty darned good hunch.

5 Comments:

At 8:26 PM, Blogger Mark Gardner said...
tisk, tisk, tisk.

Don't always think that because people think they know what's going to happen will. I've watched, and only watched, this site before.

I remember one day well was the Kerry v Bush election day. About halfway through the day, when those reliable internals came out, Kerry shot up to $80/share, and Bush fell to $20/share. Guess how that one turned out.

People put their money on what they think is going to happen.

Note: Allen is at about 90/10
Casey (PA) is at about 80/10
McCain is in the lead for GOP nomination (hahaha)
Clinton in in the lead of the donkeys
Steelers aren't the favorite for the repeat of the Superbowl (they are at a steal of a price if you are inclined)
Somebody has actaully bid on the Pirates to win the World Series (they are 15 games out of the Wild Card race, With 50 games to go and 10+ teams ahead of them.) If they aren't out of the race, they are real close.

See not everyone knows where the smart money lies. I think Lieberman should be a bit higher, but I'm not betting on it

 

At 1:06 AM, Blogger Shaun Kenney said...
Well, let's look at it this way...

If asked to double or nothing on who will win in Virginia, whom would you bet on? Allen or Webb?

Casey or Santorum?

McCain? Of course, we Virginians have an unfair advantage knowing George Allen, but still...

Clinton? Whom else is there for the Dems?

As for the Steelers, I can only say they'll make fine dinner guests for the Super Bowl against the Redskins, where PAIN WILL BE SERVED in large burgundy and gold helpings.

Beyond that, I can't complain with the findings of the bookies. Not too bad for folks in the UK.

 

At 5:42 AM, Blogger Mark Gardner said...
I'd double down for for Allen.
I'm still not convinded I could put money on Casey, because I think the race will be tighter than they are showing.
I don't link McCain, but I don't think it's going to be Allen either (there I said it), although I think he might be VP candidatie. fyi, I think it's going to be Newt.
The Dems have Al Gore
I wouldn't put any money on the Skins. They'll have a good team, but they need a QB. Brunell just won't cut it.

 

At 8:06 AM, Blogger Mark Gardner said...
Beacuse I feel the need to give a summary of last night.

All day yesterday People were offering to "buy" Lieberman at around 15. and offereing to "sell" Lamony at around 90.

Last night when the results began to come in (60-40 for Lamaont eary), Lieberman dropped down to around 4, while Lamont vaulted to 98-99.

Then as Joementum occured, his "stock" went up to 16, while Lamont dropped back to around 90.

What surprised me was how far Lieberman's stock rose, even though he was always 4% point behind, with less votes to count. I guess that people are trying to make a fair amount of money (84 points) on a hope that he would be able to pull it out.

I personally would have been shorting the 16 to get those points, becasue nothing in recent days pointed to Joe actually winning, except the sensabilties of Democrats. And we know how sensible they are. :)

For those that care (all 0 of you) Lamont is being offered at 54.5, Lieberman is being offered at 55, and the GOP candidate is at 5 for the general election. I'm surprised it is that close. Lieberman will win that race.

 

At 9:28 AM, Blogger Mike said...
As for the Steelers, I can only say they'll make fine dinner guests for the Super Bowl against the Redskins, where PAIN WILL BE SERVED in large burgundy and gold helpings.

You mean because it's going to be so painful to watch the Steelers skin the Skins, right?

 

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