Scientist Predicts Earthquake by Sept. 5

If you’ve heard me rave about these guys in the past, you know what I am talking about. This team successfully predicted earthquakes in the past with some degree of regularity. I’d be interested to see if this hits the mark:

The new prediction gives quake scientists a bully pulpit to remind people of the very real seismic risk in the region, Ellsworth added.

“We know there will be earthquakes,” he said. “The advice is out there and not always is it followed or taken seriously.”

Keilis-Borok’s team successfully forecast two earthquakes last year, the magnitude-6.5 San Simeon quake in Central California and the magnitude-8.1 quake off Japan’s Hokkaido island. As with the current Southern California prediction, the group had set wide limits in place and time for both quakes.

It’s “only two, which is emphatically not enough to justify the methodology,” Keilis-Borok said.

The fact they are willing to admit that their process isn’t quite scientifically valid tells me that they aren’t just selling snake oil.

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