The $6 Billion Budget "Shortfall" of 2004

The Gilmore camp has fired back at some spotty shilling for Warner over at the Alexandria Gazette, but I was a bit more drawn towards Jim Bacon’s analysis in March 2004 (prior to the disastrous Senate GOP-led Chichester tax hike):

One more note before I plunge into the thicket of figures: my goal is not to diminish Gov. Warner’s accomplishment in dealing with an exceedingly difficult budgetary challenge when coming to office in January 2002. He took quick and decisive action to balance a budget that was badly out of kilter, and he took proactive measures to ensure that the budget stayed balance over the next two years. Good job! (Round of applause! )

My quarrel with the governor is the way he has characterized the budget crisis in order to advance his cause of raising taxes. Shame, shame! (Jeers and catcalls.)

I asked Pam Currey, deputy secretary of finance, how the Warner administration derived the $6 billion figure. She pulled together a detailed explanation and answered all of my questions. Should you entertain any doubts or questions about my analysis, you can refer to her own words here.

In case we go through any historical revisionism on the problems facing the Commonwealth after the explosive growth in the budget during the Gilmore-Warner era, let us have Jim Bacon do the talking:

I can’t say I’d agree with him (Warner) on the need to raise taxes, but I’d respect him for stating the problem clearly and fairly.

But it’s not kosher to tell Virginians that the state had a “$6 billion shortfall” in such a way that people mistakenly draw the conclusion that the state has gone through some hideous downsizing. Yes, the governor did hack out a lot of administrative overhead, but program spending has expanded without let-up, and state government is no smaller today than it was when the recession began.

So both sides have parts wrong. And both sides have parts right. Reading this without judgment, one can draw their own conclusions as to who wins.

The article on Bacon’s Rebellion is certainly worth reading… if anything just to remind ourselves as to what sort of mess we were in at the beginning of the decade, what excessive and unbalance spending priorities had to do with it, and the fissures/rhetoric that brought about the 2004 (and 2007) tax hikes.

This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.