2004 Presidential Election Prediction

Bush 290, Kerry 248

Since I more than likely will not have an opportunity to post my thoughts as soon as I would like, I figured I would post my 2004 predictions today.

Bush will win the election with 290 electoral votes, carrying Ohio, Iowa, Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, and Hawaii. Kerry will win Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Michigan, and New Jersey.

If there was a way I could put Pennsylvania in the toss up category, I would. Bush has a fighting chance to win Pennsylvania, and in the last few days I seriously believe he can pull it off. I believe (and of course, this is with 48 hours for someone to prove me wrong) this election will be determined very, very early on.

If Pennsylvania goes Bush, the election is over. If Pennsylvania does not vote for Bush, then either Ohio or Florida must drop into the blue column for Kerry to win – neither of which I see happening.

Virginia will remain solidly behind the president with a 5-6% margin of victory. I also predict that LP candidate Michael Badnarik will outperform Nader and the Greens in when the election is said and done.

To do your own predictions, just go to the following websites and come to your own conclusions.

Real Clear Politics Composite Polling Data

NewsHour “Politics 101 Electoral College Map”

Have fun! Vote Republican!

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