A Tale of Two Maps

Spectrum of voters vs. population density

Everyone has already seen the red/blue state maps by now, and everyone has more than likely seen the population density map out of Princeton. Patrick Cox of Tech Central Station has a revealing contrast between voting trends and population density:

Comparisons of these two maps make startlingly obvious the extent to which population density predicts voter behavior. Though not a perfect match, the relationship is undeniable — and ultimately enigmatic.

What, we are led to ask, could explain this relationship? How does the number of live humans per square mile either influence or reflect political philosophy?

The standard, rather unexamined, assumption is that rural America has more traditional cultural values that are associated with the Republican Party. These include religious, family and pro-military values. Urban population centers and surrounding environs, on the other hand, are associated with more progressive values associated with Democratic Party. These values are assumed to be more secular, progressive and anti-military.

Interesting hypothesis. It certainly reminds me of the Jeffersonian dictum that the American Republic will survive best as an argarian society.

The statistician’s perennial caveat is that “correlation is not causation.” but there is little doubt that there is connection, largely unexplained, between ideology and demography. Depressingly deterministic as it is, this correlation, if it continues, may mean that future elections will be decided by immigration patterns, reproductive rates and technologies that allow more businesses and workers to locate in suburban and rural locations.

I would be happy to be proven wrong.

I would love to read a study that explains why this is. No question in my mind that cities do indeed encourage more socialist trends of polity, while rural societies ask for more individualist tendencies (Jefferson was right). A study or a good book as to why this would certainly be a tremendous thing to have.