And so the fat lady sings. . .

Not a good night for Republicans in the Fredericksburg area. Republican challenger Robert Stuber lost handily to incumbent Democrat Edd Houck last night by a 20 point margin.

Spotsylvania Republicans picked up a seat last night with Chris Yakabouski’s win over Benny Pitts, and Mary Lee Carter lost to VSS-supported Vince Ontario. As expected, Hap Connors defeated Claude Dunn by a sizeable margin, and Emmitt Marshall won with a majority against Republican Gary Bullis and C-5(00) Mark Kuchler. Republican Supervisors Gary Jackson and Bob Hagan won their respective races, giving the GOP in Spotsy a sizeable bloc. Republican Ray Lora won, Gary Skinner won. . . not a bad night.

Unfortunately Phil Fines lost a Commonwealth’s Attorney race that he fought so very hard for, as did home-schooler Kimberly Fletcher in her bid for school board.

Elsewhere, Stafford County Republicans were unable to unseat incumbent Democrat Pete Fields in a race that could have been won. Bob Gibbons maintained his seat, and Graziano lost by a mere 30 votes.

In Caroline County (my old home) the GOP resistance was turned back, although not by overwhelming numbers.

So what gives? Here’s the quick and dirty on why I believe the GOP did not do as well as expected.

1: Keep in mind that we picked up seats – and lost none. If attrition means anything, Chris Yakabouski’s victory in the Battlefield District means that the status quo has been strongly altered. The Dems may have been able to hold on to their seats, but they did not win a single challenged race. In pure mathematics, the GOP won on Tuesday.

2: Where’s the issues? If you were a Republican, you won with the endorsement of Voters to Stop Sprawl. This marriage of Republican anti-tax values and slow-growth initiatives is great for folks like me who promote the slow-growth message, but the GOP has yet to catch on to the idea that growth – and its effects on taxes – are going to pave the way.

3: Organization. Let’s be honest. The area GOP committees came at these campaigns with the traditional GOTV effort, while the VSS had a true grassroots organization at hand. Sure we have more volunteers, but were 75 of them hand-writing envelopes for GOP candidates? The Spotsy VSS certainly were. We need a reinvigoration of strategy and ideas. It’s very much possible, but it means that we have to stay on task and get folks riled up.

4: Attack! Which brings me to my final point. The GOP in all three localities needs to go on the offensive. We know from our polling data that when people think of growth, they think of traffic and taxes. Both Stafford and Spotsy need to consistently hit their Board of Supervisors with an agenda and a scorecard. E-mails need to go out when they are not up to snuff – and when our GOP supervisors fight for our values. Same on the state level, especially now with tax-reform getting ready to be revealed in a few days. Hold ’em accountable – emulate RPV.

In three months the area GOP committees will hold their elections. Let’s see what catches fire where. . .

Ah well. . . onto the Fredericksburg City Council elections!