Dems Win in SD, Kentucky, But To What Ends?

A lot of hand-wringing and analysis is being bantered about concerning the Democratic pickup of two formerly Republican seats in the House. Peter Roff gives one of the best commentaries on the losses – and what they mean – for GOPUSA (and considering where it is being published, a very evenly balanced look):

In Kentucky, former state Attorney General Ben Chandler won the special election called to fill Fletcher’s seat just weeks after he had lost the gubernatorial race to Fletcher, the first Democrat in two generations to fail to win the governor’s mansion in a general election. The Republican state legislator who lost the race, in spite of strong backing from Senate Majority Whip Mitch McConnell’s political machine, was not nearly as well known throughout the district as Chandler, whose grandfather, A.B. “Happy” Chandler, had been governor, a U.S. senator and Major League Baseball commissioner.

The story was much the same in South Dakota. The victorious Democrat, Stephanie Herseth, lost her 2002 bid for Congress to Janklow, 53 percent to 46 percent, out of more than 330,000 votes cast. She had already announced she would be back for a rematch and never stopped campaigning.

It is likely, however, that there are no great political lessons to be learned from either the Kentucky or South Dakota special elections of 2004. They did more to confirm some of the traditional truisms of politics, like the importance of high name identification in irregular elections, than to confirm the idea that the Republicans’ hold on the U.S. House of Representatives is imperiled. The Democrats may, as the result of concentrated campaigns in a very few districts, be able to take seats away from the Republicans, but it is generally conceded that it is unlikely they will be able to go all the way to majority. The special elections in South Dakota and Kentucky did nothing to alter that overall perception.

Roff might be oversimplifying it a bit, but by and large in special elections this is the case. The alarm bells aren’t going off quite yet, but Republicans should take notice nonetheless, especially in South Dakota where Democrat Tom Daschle is receiving his challenge for the U.S. Senate. If anything has me concerned, it is that while Republicans marshalled 49% of the vote, there was considerable bloodletting as a result. Lessons abound.