WSJ’s OpinionJournal has its analysis of why Kilgore lost:
As bellwethers go, however, Virginia’s governor’s race has a poor track record. Four years ago Democrat Mark Warner won the governor’s mansion. A year later, Republicans were winning a surprising number of victories, including picking up seats in the House, two seats in the U.S. Senate, and even capturing the governor’s mansion in Maryland for the first time in decades. Thus Tuesday’s defeat in Virginia may be less a harbinger of doom for Republicans in 2006 than a timely reminder of the fate usually meted out to GOP standard bearers who go wobbly on taxes.
Republican Jerry Kilgore never seemed to understand this. In 2001, he won more votes than any statewide candidate in history when he was elected attorney general, and George Bush won Virginia by nine points last year. But a Republican-controlled legislature recently passed the largest tax increase in the state’s history and failed to completely repeal the state’s hated personal property tax on cars. Mr. Kilgore had a perfect opportunity to reunify a GOP still bitterly divided over this tax hike by vowing to repeal it after an unexpected bumper crop of revenues. But he didn’t seize this opening. Result: Disgruntled Republicans stayed home on Tuesday or cast their vote for Mr. Kaine or (as 2% of the electorate did) for the third party candidate, moderate Republican Russ Potts. It’s no wonder Mr. Kaine won by five points — a blowout, considering the conservative leaning of the state.
Not every Republican running statewide was as misguided as Mr. Kilgore. Bill Bolling captured the lieutenant governor’s office, nudging out Democrat Leslie Byrne by about 30,000 votes out of nearly two million cast. Mr. Bolling made his opposition to the “massive” and “unnecessary” tax increase a centerpiece of his campaign.
That sums it up.