Norman Leahy is offering his thoughts on the new Survey USA poll. Support for Kilgore among Republicans is down, support for Kaine among Democrats is up.
Norm has some other insights as well:
Interesting, too, that in this poll the survey pool was slightly larger than last time. I have no idea whether that makes any difference in the numbers. It looks like another noticeable drop in Kilgore’s numbers comes in the 18-34 age group. I thought last time, when he held a lead here, it was surprising. Now, it seems the members of this cohort were just as surprised and broke more for Kaine (though Kilgore maintains an advantage…still surprising).
The big flip, however, is Kaine’s rising strength in Northern Virginia (called ‘Northeast’ in the tabs…go figure). His lead in the recent poll looks formidable, and would seem, based on this poll alone, to show there was no impact from the endorsements Kilgore picked up a week ago. Actually, Kaine has gone from trailing in NoVa to a lead — and there’s the difference.
Chad Dotson over at Commonwealth Conservative has some thoughts as well:
I’m a tiny bit surprised by the results, but honestly, this poll just shows what we all have known for a while: this is a close race. In the end, Republicans will break late, as they usually do in Virginia. This poll shows Kaine getting 90-percent of Democrats, but Kilgore only 81-percent of Republicans. The GOP will come home in the end; of that, I feel confident.
I’m a bit concerned that Republican base support is floating away, while the death penalty ads have rallied the Dems around their candidate.
Which raises the question: did the Kilgore campaign release the death penalty ads too early, so as to give Kaine a chance to respond? I don’t think so, and here’s why. Kilgore needed to get those ads out so as to establish that Kaine really is a “have your cake and eat it too” candidate.
Now that we have Kaine established as such on the death penalty, where is Kaine on taxes, transportation, and other issues the conservative base really cares about?
This poll isn’t a stalemate; it’s the prelude to checkmate. I like it.