Well, the pundits are calling the shots now, and Kenney the Younger has made his prediction:
All polls are showing that the race between Kaine and Kilgore (and that other guy) is more or less a dead heat. But polls are meaningless. What matters is whether or not people turn up to vote the way they say they will.
And the Republican’s won’t.
The Kilgore campaign has done little to excite the conservative base of the party. And despite pleads from clear minds like Norm, the conservatives are just not going to feel the urge to turn out. Despite the long term implications of this race and it’s potential impact in future Virginia elections, from House of Delegates up to Presidential.
Here’s the recent lineup of polls in Virginia, and while the polls here may show Kaine up by 1.2%, I’m going to explain why Kilgore is going to win in four short little letters.
GOTV.
Kilgore has it, Kaine doesn’t. We have a better program under one banner. Kaine has MoveOn.org and a host of other 527 mercenaries. That’s why the Democratic senators wanted to see Kaine by five, because they know it just as well as we do.
What sinks us? Depends on what goes on in Washington to be honest, and there’s not much Kilgore can do about that. One thing is for sure though, the fate of Kilgore lies with conservatives alone. We either pick a fella whom we can work with, or we pick Tim Kaine. If the thought of a $2 billion tax hike guarenteed tickles you, stay home. If not, Kilgore needs your vote on 08 November.
In short, unless something tragic happens, conservatives are going to rally ’round the flag (especially after our new SCOTUS nominee seems to be the real deal rather than a moderate squish) and reinforce their Republican majority. The threat of a Kilgore veto is enough to kill any tax hike from the Senate, not to mention the body shot the Dems and the moderate Republicans will take from a Kaine/Potts drubbing.