Taking my time to post this… but let’s face it: When the Richmond press corps does a collective “oh sh*t” in reaction to Frederick’s win over Hager for RPV Chairman, the Fife and Drum set that played for the RPV Gala might as well have stuck around to play “The World Turned Upside Down” out of courtesy.
WINNERS
Delegate/Chairman Jeff Frederick: There is no question the Jeff Frederick pulled off one of the biggest upsets since Mike Farris in ’93. With the departure of most of RPV’s fundraising team and the promise to take out most of the staff, Frederick is setting himself up for a major realignment. Whether he can pull it off might mean winning and losing the House of Delegates in 2009.
Former Governor Jim Gilmore: Governor Goliath beat David. Marshall supporters are carrying over a nasty hangover, but Gilmore eeks out a win.
Delegate Bob Marshall: For Marshall to be outspent 14 to 1 against a former governor of Virginia — and come that close — turns what was formerly assumed to be a “gadfly” into the New Right in Virginia. His supporters having stuck around and supported Frederick while the Gilmore/Hager votes left in droves after the Senate nomination means that Marshall gets all the perks of statewide influence, without having to do the heavy lifting Frederick must do. It’s political capital Marshall will be able to cash in repeatedly for the next five years.
Jeffersoniad Blog Alliance: Tooting our own horn? Perhaps… but given a hospitality suite and a commanding presence on the convention floor that absolutely rolled the MSM in it’s professionalism and energy, the Jeffersoniad proved itself a rather indispensable (and dare I say popular) addition to the RPV Convention. Hat’s off to Rhumb Line for sponsoring the hospitality suite!
The New Right: The “Marshall Coalition” of lowercase-l libertarians, pro-lifers, 2nd Amendment supporters, and pro-family organizations made a statement by nearly bumping off Gilmore and electing Frederick. Some folks are writing it off as angst, but there is a new wind blowing… first one to define it (and its principles) wins!
LOSERS
The 52nd District: Delegate Jeff Fredeick will keep his promise to bow out… which further hurts Speaker Howell’s chances at retaining the majority in 2009.
Richmond Convention Center: How much does a cup of coffee and a cake cost at the Richmond Convention Center? $1,500 if you’re buying a set of eighty. I will never use the Richmond Convention Center ever again for anything. Overpriced, underserviced, and an entirely unhelpful (even rude) staff in the front office. My advice? Go to a hotel, go outside of Richmond… but don’t ever use the RCC.
Chairman John Hager: Hager truly is the hardest working man in Virginia politics. I enjoyed working for him while at RPV, and wish him all the best in the future. Hopefully, he will find a way to remain active within Virginia politics.
The Republican Party of Virginia: The Gillespie/Hager era is over, but sadly the Charlie Judd era is over at RPV as well (despite having run against Hager in 2007).
People quickly forget what a shambles RPV was known as in 2006. The place was a dump when I first stepped in as Communications Director in early 2007. Since then, RPV raised more money than it ever has before in a fiscal year, turned out more Republicans statewide in 2007 than the Democrats did in the November election, put Political Directors in the field for the first time, broke out into new media, helped stitch together warring factions in the House and Senate, and helped broker the McDonnell/Bolling ticket for 2009.
All of it — every single bit of it — can be attributed to Charlie Judd’s exemplary leadership at RPV. He is the best Executive Director we have had in my 16 years of involvement with Virginia politics, and will not be easily replaced.
Former Governor Jim Gilmore: This must be said as well — Gilmore must reach out to values voters, and he must reach out to Marshall. Of course, it would be easy to gloss over Marshall with a convincing victory at the RPV Convention, but Gilmore literally won by a razor’s edge.
I am 100% certain that the back channels are being worked… but without some concession to the pro-life community, Gilmore will never get a clean start.
Thankfully, former Republican State Senator John Chichester has given all the ammo for fiscal conservatives to come out in droves. Gilmore is in a stronger position to position himself than ever before, but without the base secured there will always be a persistent nagging question as to whether values voters will work as hard for Gilmore as they did for Marshall.
For my part, I hope Gilmore does reach out.
Former Governor Mark Warner: Whoever thought it was a good idea to put John Chichester in an ad claiming bi-partisanship should be pointed out and laughed at. Nothing fired Republicans up more than to see big toothy Mark Warner join forces with Lord Chichester. Last time that happened, my taxes went up…
Democratic Party of Virginia: Note to Levar “Slash-and-Snitch” Stoney:
No one in Virginia takes your memos seriously.
NOVA Moderates: Finally — the old guard is out, the new guard is in, and they’re tired of hearing Northern Virginia whine about candidates being too conservative while they run squishy moderates and get hammered. Conservatives carried most of the NOVA delegations at the RPV Convention, which bodes well for Keith Fimian and others.
****
There’s not a whole lot more to add for the moment. The Gilmore-Warner race is going to narrow significantly, especially when Gilmore mends the fences with Marshall and gets to hammering Warner in a good, clean tax fight. Frederick will have his hands full making sure he has the resources (and leadership) to implement his 100-Day Plan. Conservatives are edging out the moderates, and Marshall’s near-win is going to bring out a host of new leadership in unit and district committees.
It’s a new day in Virginia.