Since we seem to be mulling over who won and lost last Tuesday, I thought I’d chime in with my own analysis:
WINNERS:
* White Collar Progressives: Progressives showed the Democratic Party of Virginia who was dominant, and sent the traditional liberals packing.
* Republican Blogs: On the flip side of the coin, the Miller-Webb race turned into a win-win situation.
* Harris Miller: For Governor? Wait and see… but after suffering some of the more brutal attacks from Webb, in the end I get the feeling he earned the respect of many in the Virginia electorate, especially after his classy concession speech.
* George Allen: I still contend that we got the weaker candidate on Tuesday, one who will not motivate the African-American base, one who alienated Jewish-Americans, and one who has a terrible campaign staff. Miller would have been much more difficult to beat. A Webb campaign holding hands with Senator John Kerry is gold for Republicans — especially when you consider that Allen is the most popular Republican in the Commonwealth.
DRAW:
* Jim Webb: Sometimes people judge you on the manner of which you win your campaign, and what might work for within a Democratic primary (cartoons, standing next to John Kerry) will destroy you among independent and Republican voters. Welcome to the big leagues, Jim.
* Democratic Blogs: Sure you helped Webb win, but at what cost to your own reputations (and do you care)?
* DPVA: Progressives vs. liberals, and the establishment got whacked. Tantamount to a coup d’etat.
LOSERS:
* Liberals: You got whacked folks, and you’re losing your party to a movement I’m not sure anyone wants to see come to power. Fight back for Christ’s sake!!!
* Civility and Decorum in the Democratic Party: That entire primary was atrocious, and those who participated in the smear attacks should be absolutely ashamed of themselves. Negative campaigning is one thing, but nasty campaigning has no place in Virginia (or so I thought).
* Civility and Decorum in the GOP: Senator George Allen isn’t going to let Jim Webb get away with the nonsense his poor campaign staff forced him to accept during the primary. And be forewarned: Republicans are at a tipping point. If you think the Howard Dean style candidacy is bad, angry Republicans on the ground are getting sick and tired of being pushed around — and I don’t like it one bit. Frankly, the behavior of radical Democrats is changing the behavior of conservatives in a big way. The reason why Ann Coulter is popular is because she fights back. How much longer before conservatives (the traditionally calm and reasoned types) decide to react? I worry…
* Jim Webb’s Reputation: Secretary Webb entered this race with a chance – distant though possible – of building his coaltion. His campaign staff and his volunteers have utterly destroyed that reputation. Now George Allen has a chance to unite not just the moderate and conservative factions of the GOP under his “Jeffersonian conservativism”, he also has a clear chance of bringing those Webb alienated into a Republican Party sensitive to African-Americans, Hispanics, and yes Jewish voters. Through September, Allen has an excellent chance to build that coalition, and Webb must rebuild his reputation. Derailing that effort will only hurt Webb further, especially if his volunteers use the same tactics the primary engendered them to use.
* Ben Tribbett: This has to be said — one year ago when he was all analysis, he was top of the heap. Since he drifted into commentary, it’s been all downhill from there. If you were at Sorenson, he had to be the most universally disliked character in Virginia (to the point I was actually defending him at times during our panel conversation). NLS has imploded from analysis to tabloid, beyond repair at this point, and it’s sad to see. To be mentioned in the same breath as BVBL and “when will he sued” is not a good sign…
That’s my take on it folks. Webb won, civility lost, and Republicans are getting angry in a way I have never seen.